The Classic Taoist Parable of the Chinese Farmer

A farmer's horse ran away. His neighbors came to console him, saying, "What bad luck!"

The farmer replied, "Maybe."

The next day, the horse returned, bringing with it several wild horses. The neighbors said, "What good luck!"

The farmer replied, "Maybe."

The following day, his son tried to ride one of the wild horses, was thrown off, and broke his leg. The neighbors said, "What bad luck!"

The farmer replied, "Maybe."

The day after, soldiers came to the village to conscript young men into the army. Because the son's leg was broken, he was passed over. The neighbors said, "What good luck!"

The farmer replied, "Maybe."

The parable is often attributed to the Taoist tradition and was popularized in the West by philosopher Alan Watts. Its central lesson is about the futility of judging events as purely good or bad; life is more complex and interconnected than our snap judgments allow.